Show Format & Context

Racing In The Draft is a pre-race DFS analysis live stream on YouTube, airing Saturday nights (\~9pm ET) the evening before each NASCAR Cup Series race. Mark provides solo analysis with live viewer chat interaction, covering DraftKings salary breakdown, historical data, calculator projections, ownership targets, and lineup construction strategy from a GPP tournament perspective.

Opening — Atlanta Results Review

Tyler Reddick Won AGAIN: After starting from the pole at Atlanta, Reddick won his second consecutive points-paying race — this time without a front-right fender for much of the race. "Who would have thought? Let's sue NASCAR, let's beat NASCAR in court, and let's go win the first two points-paying races of the year." Mark did not have Reddick heavily — "definitely did not have that called."

Atlanta DK Optimal Results:

- Chase Briscoe led the optimal with 83 DK points (started 34th, finished 2nd — highest single-race score of the early season)

- SVG made the optimal despite it not being a road course — finished 6th

- Tyler Reddick also made the optimal, leading 53 of 271 laps — "I did not think the pole sitter would get into the optimal"

- Other strong performers: Ross Chastain (started 21st), Ryan Preece (started 26th), Carson Hocevar (started 15th), Denny Hamlin (started 29th), Ryan Blaney (started mid-20s)

- AJ Allmendinger had 9 fast laps; Ryan Preece led with 10 fast laps

- Mark notes his "dollar call" (a specific lineup build) bit him a little, but still made a little money

COTA Race Conditions & Track Context

Track Layout: 2.3-mile road course, 95 laps. Same abbreviated layout as 2025 (not the older long course — that added section is shown in gray on the broadcast map). Right and left turns throughout.

2026 Changes: Higher horsepower (750 HP) and softer tires compared to previous COTA years. Expect significantly more tire wear than in past editions. "This is not going to be the typical COTA we've seen in previous years."

Track Record: Chevys have 3 wins at COTA, Toyota 2, Ford 0\. Bell, Reddick, and Byron have all won here. Christopher Bell won in 2025 (started 19th).

Comparison Tracks for Data: COTA, Mexico City, Sonoma, Watkins Glen, Chicago Rovals — Mark uses the last 4 of these to build his optimal lineup history framework.

Maximum Dominator Points (95 laps):

- Full dominator: \~90.25 DK points (66.5 from fast laps \+ 23.75 from laps led)

- This is theoretical; SVG comes closest in practice

The Toyota Practice Anomaly — Major Story of the Week

Every Toyota (Reddick, Bell, Briscoe, Gibbs, Hamlin) practiced BADLY — bottom half of the field in both single-lap speed and 5-lap consecutive averages. Yet they qualified WELL: Reddick on pole, Briscoe 3rd, Bell 8th, Gibbs 9th.

Theory 1 — Sandbagging: Teams deliberately tanked practice to hide their speed. Mark references Bill Elliott's era tactic: "He would practice half a lap at full speed and the other half at 3/4 speed. Nobody would know what he had, then he would blow qualifying away."

Theory 2 — Qualifying Setup Trick: Teams bumped air pressures sharply for qualifying, producing 1.5–2 second lap time improvements for 2-3 laps — but this would cause severe tire degradation in the race.

Mark's Assessment: "Either they were sandbagging in practice, or they just way overshot themselves for qualifying. Guess we're going to find out tomorrow." This uncertainty is why Mark doesn't go heavy on the Toyotas despite their strong qualifying positions.

Historical Optimal Lineup Data (Last 4 Road Courses)

2025 COTA: Christopher Bell won (started 19th). Kyle Busch dominated with 42 laps led. Bell, Byron, Buescher, Bowman all in optimal. Noah Gragson was close (9 spots of PD). \~$900 left on salary cap.

Mexico City 2024: SVG dominated. Alex Bowman, Christopher Bell, William Byron all in optimal. John Hunter Nemechek from 32nd made the optimal.

Sonoma 2024: SVG dominated 97 of 110 laps. Chase Elliott, Michael McDowell, Joey Logano, Josh Berry, Justin Haley (from 29th) in optimal.

Watkins Glen 2024: SVG dominated with 38 laps. Buescher, Byron, Bowman, Eric Jones, Zane Smith (from 33rd) in optimal.

Key Insight: Unlike superspeedways, road courses do NOT require drivers starting in the 30s+ to make the optimal. Worst starting position across these four optimals: 24th (COTA), 32nd (Mexico), 29th (Sonoma), 33rd (Watkins Glen). Front-starters (1 per lineup) are viable.

DK Score Targets:

- Optimal range for $7,500+ drivers: \~53–55 points

- Optimal range for under $7,500 drivers: \~45–47 points

- Top-15 minimum: \~32 points

- Salary cap leftovers: \~$700–$1,000 (tighter than superspeedways)

Mark's Lineup Construction Rules for Road Courses

1. Maximum 2 top-10 starters per lineup — and even that is pushing it. Prefer 1 per lineup.

2. Don't pair two top-10 starters — the odds of two of them both needing top-3 finishes with big laps-led totals to both reach optimal is essentially a trifecta parlay.

3. No need to dumpster dive — unlike superspeedways, starting spots in the 20s–25s are perfectly fine. No need to force 35th+ starting drivers.

4. Top-15 prime drivers: Mark targets \~15 "prime" drivers he wants in his lineups; the sneaky pick comes from outside that obvious group.

Mark's Own Build: He hand-builds using an Excel spreadsheet he created that auto-fills drivers by exposure percentage across 40 lineup slots. "It's a pseudo hand-build — I decide who and how much, the spreadsheet organizes it."

AI / Technology Discussions

OpenClaw (Claude) Bot: Mark revealed he bought a second computer two days ago and is running "OpenClaw" (Claude AI) exclusively for NASCAR DFS research. Named his bot "Winston" (after the Winston Cup era). Plans to build a website and eventually a Discord channel where viewers could ask Winston questions — pending cost management of token usage.

Mark's Framework Quote: "I see the potential 6 months from now from that being a really, really cool tool to be able to use."

Viewer Daniel mentioned he was using Claude AI to build lineups and research with prompts, and was building a Saber Sim-style optimizer using "base44" AI. Mark and Daniel agreed to do a Zoom call to discuss optimizer technology.

Daniel's Offer: "I could transcribe your stream after this and plug it in and tell you to do research as a GPP winning DFS player. Just ask it a ton of detailed prompts and see what spits out." Mark: "Yeah, go for it. Let me know what you come up with."

Practice Speed Leaders

1. Ryan Blaney — fastest single lap AND best 5-lap consecutive average by a significant margin

2. Michael McDowell — fastest overall single lap at one point in practice

3. SVG — 20th single lap but 3rd in 5-lap average (fell off later)

4. Chase Elliott — in between McDowell and Blaney; decent long-run pace

5. AJ Allmendinger — 12th single lap, 7th 5-lap average; right in the middle

All Toyotas (Reddick, Bell, Briscoe, Gibbs) practiced well below Blaney — 0.75 to 2+ seconds per lap slower, well below the average. This is the central mystery of the weekend.

Driver-by-Driver DFS Breakdown

Tier 1 — Primary Plays

SVG (Shane Van Gisbergen) | $13,000 | Starting: 13th

- Last 5 road courses: 4 wins, 4 top 5s, 5 top 10s; DK avg: 67.6; avg finish: 2.0 (2nd place average\!)

- Career (13 road course starts): 7 wins, 10 top 10s, 7.1 avg finish

- Finished 6th at COTA 2025; averages 55 laps led per road course race (over half the race); avg fast laps including laps led: 21.8

- Practice: 20th single lap, 3rd in 5-lap avg — the best Toyota but still not near Blaney

- Calculator: Win \+ 5 laps led \+ 5 fast laps from 13th \= 60.5 pts (optimal without dominating); Win \+ 20 laps led \+ 10 fast laps \= 66.5 (his historical average)

- Assessment: If he finishes 4th+ without leading much, he's outside optimal. Needs a top-4 finish with some laps led.

- Expected ownership: \~50% (chalk of the field); Mark's target: 35–40% (intentionally under-weighting)

- Betting favorite at \+120 (barely pays off on a $10 bet)

Connor Zilisch | $11,500 | Starting: 25th

- Cup road course history: finished 37th at COTA 2025 — rammed into barriers, not fully his fault. His only road course Cup start.

- Won the O'Reilly (Xfinity) race earlier today at COTA; battled back from multiple incidents to finish top 10

- Practice: fired off fast (similar to SVG on chart), fell off some — still respectable

- Calculator: 5th \+ 1 lap led \+ 3 fast laps from 25th \= 60.6 pts (optimal); 10th \= 50.6 (close to optimal threshold)

- Assessment: Mark says Zilisch may have the natural talent to eventually match SVG — "give him 15 more years." Starting 25th gives 20 spots of potential PD. Risk: he's still learning the NextGen car on road courses.

- Expected ownership: noticeable for his price; Mark's target: 15–20%

- Mark's view: "I have no problem with this at all. He may get overlooked slightly."

Ryan Preece | $7,000 | Starting: 29th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 15.8 (better than Austin Cindric at 28th\!)

- Practice: not great, but starting 29th gives room

- Calculator: 12th \+ token lap \+ 3 fast laps \= 49 pts; feasible

- Assessment: Mark has a "gut feeling" on Preece; RFK showing really good speed in 2026; "I really like Ryan Preece to make the playoffs and possibly win a race this year"

- Expected ownership: not yet determined; Mark's target: 15–20%

Todd Gilliland | Starting: 17th ⭐ Sneaky Pick of the Week

- Practice: 5th single lap (\!), 17th in 5-lap avg — great single-lap speed, fell off on long runs

- Finished 10th at COTA 2025; last 5 road courses: avg finish 19.8 (better than Austin Dillon, Brad K, Carson Hocevar)

- Front Row Motorsports has been running better in 2026

- Calculator: 10th (repeat of last year) \+ 2 fast laps \+ token \= 42.15 pts; 8th \= \~46 pts (optimal threshold)

- Expected ownership: under 10%; Mark's target: 15% (going OVER the field on purpose)

- Joanne (87-year-old viewer) called this one first; Mark agreed: "I like Todd Gilliland. It is sneaky. That's how we win."

- Assessment: "This is our sneaky pick of the week."

Tier 2 — Solid Secondary Plays

Kyle Busch | $8,000 | Starting: 30th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 21.8; avg running position 22; DK avg: 16.1; 1 top 5, 2 top 10s last year

- Led 42 laps to dominate COTA 2025 — but Mark: "I think that was a fluke to be perfectly honest"

- Practice: started decent, not great on long run

- Calculator: 15th \+ 3 fast laps \+ token \= 44.6; needs top 15 consistently for value (optimal at \~50 pts)

- Expected ownership: \~20%; Mark's target: \~15% (slightly under field)

- Assessment: "Starting 30th, we've got some room to run." If he falls to 20th, not a crushing day.

Alex Bowman | $7,800 | Starting: 16th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 14.0; 1 top 5, 2 top 10s, ALL 5 top 20s; DK avg: 34.1

- Career: 41 starts, 32 of 41 top 20s (75%\!); 1 win (Chicago 2024); avg finish 14.4

- Finished 9th at COTA 2025

- Practice: poor — "one of the worst for his price/starting position combination"

- Calculator: 6th \+ token \+ token fast lap \= 50.5 (close to optimal at $7,800)

- Expected ownership: \~15%; Mark's target: \~15% (viewer Joanne: "Bowman is a great play man")

- Assessment: Consistent road course performer but practice was disappointing. Starting 16th limits PD ceiling.

Kyle Larson | $9,200 | Starting: 15th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 28.8; DK avg: \-8 (negative\!); only 1 top 20 last year

- Career: 44 road course starts, 5 wins (3rd among active drivers behind Elliott's 7 and SVG's 6\)

- Practice: 4th single lap, 10th in 5-lap avg — solid, slightly better than Byron

- Calculator: 3rd \+ 6 laps led \+ 6 fast laps \= 57.2; 5th or better needed for optimal

- Expected ownership: 10–15%; Mark's target: \~15%

- Assessment: "Larson used to be extremely good at road courses and in fact he still is" — recent results are misleading; the talent is there

Chris Buescher | $8,300 | Starting: 14th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 8.0; DK avg: 43.9; 4 top 10s, ALL 5 top 20s; won Watkins Glen 2024

- Career: 43 starts, 12.3 avg finish; "top five for best road course avg finish in the garage"

- Practice: about average — same tier as Larson and Byron

- Calculator: 4th \+ 5 fast laps \= 50.5; 4th gets to 52 (optimal threshold at $8,300)

- Expected ownership: 10–15%; Mark's target: 10–15% (maybe slightly under)

- Assessment: "Very consistent." RFK showing good speed in 2026\. I have no problem with Buescher.

Chase Elliott | $9,000 | Starting: 5th *(sheet showed 15th but calculator confirms 5th)*

- Last 5 road courses: 3 top 5s, 4 top 10s; avg finish 8.8; DK avg: 39.8

- Most wins on road courses among active Cup drivers (7 career wins); won COTA previously

- Practice: 13th single lap, 6th 5-lap avg — between McDowell and Blaney on chart; respectable

- Calculator: Win \+ 10 laps led \+ 5 fast laps \= 53.75; 3rd \+ same \= 47.75

- Expected ownership: 10–15%; Mark's target: 10–15%

- Assessment: "I don't mind running some Chase Elliott." Not a fade, not going heavy. Same weight as Byron/Larson.

William Byron | $10,000 | Starting: 10th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 6.8; no wins recently (2 career road course wins); avg running position: 9.4

- Career: 38 starts, 2 wins, 7 top 5s, 16 top 10s, 14.7 avg finish

- Practice: 16th single lap, 16th 5-lap avg — about average; "well below Blaney"

- Calculator: 7th \+ 1 lap led \+ 3 fast laps \= 41.6 (top 15 but not optimal); needs 2nd or better to reach 55

- Expected ownership: 15–18%; Mark's target: 10–15%

- Assessment: "Byron has won Kota before." Starting 10th limits PD; needs a podium day to be optimal.

Viable Shots / Secondary Considerations

Ryan Blaney | $7,500 | Starting: 4th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 17.6; 1 top 10, 3 top 20s — mediocre results despite his talent

- Practice: FASTEST of everyone — best single lap and best 5-lap consecutive average by a significant margin

- Calculator: 2nd \+ 10 laps led \+ 5 fast laps from 4th \= 52 pts (right at optimal threshold)

- Key rule: "You can only take one of these drivers starting in the top 10"

- Assessment: Best practice speeds on the entire track. The data says he should be fast. But starting 4th \= limited PD, and the math of pairing him with another top-10 starter becomes a trifecta. Pick him OR another front-starter, not both.

- Expected ownership: \~10%; Mark's target: \~10%

Joey Logano | Starting: 20th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 17.6; 1 top 10, 3 top 20s; practice about average

- Calculator: 8th \+ 4 fast laps \= \~50 pts (optimal range)

- Expected ownership: \~10%; Mark's target: \~10%

- Assessment: "As much as I don't like him" — from 20th he's somewhat viable; 8th or better needed

Daniel Suarez | $6,900 | Starting: 23rd

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 16.6; 2 top 5s, 4 top 10s; Spire Racing

- Spire puts out "pretty good road course cars"

- Calculator: 10th or better needed (\~48 pts at $6,900)

- Expected ownership: 10–15%; Mark's target: 10–15%

- Assessment: Spire's money and resources show up on road courses. Top 10 done twice last year.

Austin Cindric | $7,200 | Starting: 28th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 28.5; 2 top 20s, NO top 10s; avg running position: 21.5

- Career: 27 starts, 3 top 5s, 9 top 10s (about a third of the time he gets top 10\)

- Practice: "really fell off at the tail end"

- Calculator: 11th or better needed (\~49 pts); 14th \= 47.3 (close)

- Expected ownership: \~10%; Mark's target: \~10%

- Assessment: "Don't love it, don't hate it." Some PD from 28th but inconsistent road course finisher.

Noah Gragson | $5,900 | Starting: 35th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 24.8; 1 top 10 in those 5 races

- Practice: slightly better than average — one of the better looks from the value tier

- Calculator: 17th \+ token \= \~37 pts (top 15 territory)

- Expected ownership: 8–10%; Mark's target: \~same

- Assessment: Starting 35th \= only 2 people behind him. Some shots play.

Brad Keselowski | $6,300 | Starting: 26th

- Has a healing broken leg; Joey Hand (road course specialist) is listed as standby driver

- Rule: If Brad starts 1 lap, comes in, Joey Hand drives — ALL DK points credit goes to Keselowski's lineup

- Practice: not good; Keselowski's pace is uncertain given the injury

- Calculator: 12th \+ token \= 45.7 pts; at $6,300, that's close to the 45-47 optimal threshold for value drivers

- Expected ownership: 5–7%; Mark's target: 5–7%

- Assessment: Wildcard. If Hand gets in and runs well, Keselowski gets the points. But also could be a disaster.

Jesse Love | $5,500 | Starting: 27th

- First road course in the NextGen Cup car; genuinely good at road courses in Xfinity

- Practice: better than average for most of session — impressive for a first-timer

- Calculator: 17th from 27th \= 36.7 pts; 14th \= 42.7 (close to optimal at $5,500 price)

- Mark: "Jesse Love could be the highest-finishing RCR car tomorrow. Who doesn't love love? Everybody loves love."

- Will take some shots

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | $5,300 | Starting: 34th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 23.2–24.0; 2 top 20s, NO top 10s

- Calculator: 19th \= 44.2 pts (at $5,300, that's feasible for top-15 range)

- "Can Ricky Stenhouse Jr. get to a top 20? He had two of them last year." — Mark will take some shots

Fades

Tyler Reddick | $9,000 | Starting: Pole (1st)

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 9.6 (exc. Chicago); all 4 COTA starts in top 5

- Practice: better than Bell but 3/4 second slower than Blaney — Toyota sandbagging theory applies

- Calculator: Win \+ 50 laps led \= 58 pts; Win \+ 35 laps \+ 10 fast laps \= 58.25 (from pole\!)

- For Bell starting 8th, finishing 1st \+ just 10 laps led \= almost the same points

- Expected ownership: some (momentum from 2 straight wins); Mark's target: 5–8%

- Assessment: "All the trends are pointing toward Tyler Reddick. I also think it's risky taking the poll sitter." Mark soft-fades but doesn't go to zero.

Christopher Bell | $9,800 | Starting: 8th

- Last 5 road courses: 1 win, 5 TOP 5s — every race; avg finish: 2.6; DK avg: 57.8

- Won at COTA 2025 starting from 19th

- Practice: 27th single lap, 28th 5-lap avg (Toyota sandbagging?); 1.5–2 seconds slower than Blaney

- Calculator: Win \+ 10 laps led \+ 6 fast laps \= 57.2 (optimal if he wins); 3rd \+ same \= 51.2

- Assessment: "My biggest head scratcher — what is going on with Toyotas in practice?" Starting 8th is the issue; needs podium \+ laps led. If Toyota was genuinely slow in practice, this is a real fade. If sandbagging, Bell is a primary play.

- Mark's target: implied 10–15% range; soft confidence pick rather than high-conviction

Chase Briscoe | $8,700 | Starting: 3rd

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 8.4; 2 top 5s, 3 top 10s, ALL 5 top 20s; DK avg: 38.4

- Practice: same Toyota practice anomaly — "way slower than Blaney"

- Calculator: 3rd \+ 20 laps led \+ 5 fast laps \= 48 pts (below 52 optimal threshold); needs podium

- Key rule: "If I run Chase Briscoe, I'm running the rest of the lineup outside the top 10"

- Expected ownership: sub-10%; Mark's target: sub-10% (subprime, not a fade but low conviction)

AJ Allmendinger | $8,500 | Starting: 7th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 16.2; DK avg: 23.1; 0 top 5s, 1 top 10; finished 30th at COTA 2025

- Career: 50 road course starts, 3 wins, 36 top 20s (very consistent historically)

- Practice: 12th single lap, 7th 5-lap — right in the middle; decent but not exciting

- Colleague Racing situation: Chevy has cut them off ("ugly stepchild put out to pasture"); no manufacturing support now switching to Dodge

- Calculator: Needs top 3 \+ 15 laps led \+ 3 fast laps to crack 52 pts — very tough from 7th

- Expected ownership: \~5%; Mark will have "one, two, maybe three lineups out of 80"

- Assessment: "Pretty much a fade. The juice isn't worth the squeeze."

Ross Chastain | $8,100 | Starting: 2nd

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 16.6; 0 top 5s, 1 top 10

- Practice: 21st single lap, 8th 5-lap — sandbagging or just slow for the race?

- Calculator: 5th from 2nd \= 39.5 pts (subprime); would need to win to be viable

- Mark's theory: Trackhouse gave Chastain slightly less setup focus vs. SVG/Zilisch at road courses

- Full fade essentially

Michael McDowell | $7,600 | Starting: 6th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 8.8 (TIED with Chase Elliott — 4th best on board); 3 top 5s, 5 top 20s; DK avg: 36.6; avg running position: 13th

- Had THE fastest single-lap time in practice

- Calculator: 2nd \+ 4 fast laps \+ 10 laps led \= 50.3 (barely at optimal threshold)

- Assessment: "If you're going to take McDowell, don't take anybody else starting in the top 15." Starting 6th with these numbers is a tough sell.

- Expected ownership: \<5%; Mark will have 3–4 of 80 lineups (less than 5%)

Ty Gibbs | $7,700 | Starting: 9th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 19.4; Toyota sandbagging (9th in qualifying despite terrible practice)

- Needs top 3 \+ 7 fast laps for 50 pts — "too much negative place differential risk"

- Extended commentary: Mark discussed Ty Gibbs' struggles, the silver spoon narrative, Chris Gabehart's comments about Gibbs dynamics at JGR, and team morale issues

- Full fade

Denny Hamlin | Starting: 19th

- Self-proclaimed: "I suck at road courses." Stats confirm: avg finish 22.3, only 1 top 20 in last 5 road courses

- Calculator: 8th \= \~49 pts needed; "tall tall task"

- Expected ownership: \~5%; essentially a fade

Carson Hocevar | $6,700 | Starting: 12th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 25.2; DK avg: 9.2 (nearly worst on board after Larson)

- Practice: "super erratic all over the place"

- Only 1 top 5 in 12 road course starts (Watkins Glen 2 years ago — "absolute wreck fest")

- Hocevar's own comment: "Pray for him for this race"

- Full fade from Mark

Bubba Wallace | Starting: 24th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 16.2 (self-admitted road course struggles but "getting better")

- Toyota sandbagged in practice; Wallace about average to slightly better

- Calculator: 16th \= 35.7 pts (barely top 15); needs top 10 for optimal

- Expected ownership: \~5%; Mark will have \~3 lineups total, paired with Reddick (momentum theory)

Austin Dillon | $6,200 | Starting: 33rd

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 26.2; only 1 top 20; avg running position: 23.9

- Finished 35th at COTA 2025; practice "nothing better than average"

- Calculator: 20th from 33rd \= 36.7 pts (top 15 but not optimal)

- Assessment: "Buyer beware. Starting 33rd looks delicious but might be a little sour." Mark will take some but with very low confidence. Thinks Jesse Love might out-finish him.

Cole Custer | Starting: 18th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 22nd; practice about average to slightly worse

- Starting 18th \= "out kicked your coverage"

- Full fade

Zane Smith | $6,000 | Starting: 11th

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 26.4; "not a super speedway"

- Starting 11th \= essentially fade despite starting inside top half of field

- "I'm going to fade off of Zane Smith"

Riley Herbst | Starting: 32nd

- Last 5 road courses: avg finish 25.0; 1 top 20

- Mark: "He's just keeping the seat warm until Cory Heim takes over the 35"

- Full fade

Josh Berry | Starting: 22nd

- Avg finish 23.2; needs top 10 to be optimal; "I just don't think Josh Barry's got that in him"

- Fade

Ty Dillon | Starting: ?

- Avg finish 27.0; only 1 top 20; Colleague Racing without Chevy support; "Ty Dillon is not AJ Allmendinger"

- Full fade

Cody Ware | Starting: 37th

- Avg finish 31st on road courses; "not worth it"

- Full fade

Mark's Ownership Summary

| Driver | Expected Field % | Mark's Target |

| :---- | :---- | :---- |

| SVG | \~50% | 35–40% (under) |

| Connor Zilisch | notable | 15–20% |

| William Byron | \~15–18% | 10–15% |

| Christopher Bell | moderate | implied 10–15% |

| Kyle Larson | \~15% | \~15% |

| Chase Elliott | \~15% | 10–15% |

| Kyle Busch | \~20% | \~15% (under) |

| Alex Bowman | \~15% | \~15% |

| Tyler Reddick | some | 5–8% |

| Ryan Preece | moderate | 15–20% |

| Joey Logano | \~10% | \~10% |

| Austin Cindric | \~10% | \~10% |

| Daniel Suarez | \~10–15% | 10–15% |

| Todd Gilliland | under 10% | 15% (over — sneaky pick) |

| Ryan Blaney | \~10% | \~10% |

| Chris Buescher | \~15% | 10–15% |

| AJ Allmendinger | \~5% | \~5% |

| Denny Hamlin | \~5% | \~5% |

| Bubba Wallace | \~5% | \~5% (3 lineups) |

| Brad Keselowski | \~5% | 5–7% |

| Chase Briscoe | \~8% | sub-10% |

| Michael McDowell | \~5% | \<5% |

Contest Strategy

GPP Philosophy: Road courses are the trickiest to build for. Mark recommends players who are less comfortable with road course DFS to play lighter (fewer lineups, cheaper contests) until they find a system that works.

The "Prime 15" System: Mark targets 15 prime drivers, maybe 10 subprime, and 11-12 full fades. His tournament edge comes from finding the 1 driver per week who scores in the prime-15 but nobody expects — this week, that's Todd Gilliland.

Salary Flexibility: Road courses leave $700–$1,000 on the salary cap in optimal lineups — much less "free money" than superspeedways. Still, don't force expensive players just to use the cap.

Qualifying vs. Practice: The Toyota qualifying vs. practice discrepancy is the week's biggest unknown. Mark builds accordingly — less Toyota exposure than pure qualifying position would suggest, but not zero.

Notable Viewer Moments

- Joanne (87 years old): Regular viewer, watching with family. Called Todd Gilliland as the sneaky pick of the week. Mark: "If this hits, we're all taking Joanne out to dinner. Hopefully you come back next week. Especially if this hits."

- Daniel: Regular viewer; using Claude AI to build DFS research tools; building a Saber Sim optimizer; expects baby in \~7 weeks (a boy)

- Family Man: Long-time viewer; Mark's primary offline DFS discussion partner

- Viewer question — "Has DFS changed how you watch races?" Mark: "Absolutely — for the better. It makes me watch the entire field. I'm watching the guy in 24th because I need him to get from 30th to 18th. I focus on the middle of the pack as much as who's leading."

Notable Quotes

- On Tyler Reddick: "Two in a row starting from the pole on a drafting track. Without a front-right fender for the most part. He's like, 'I'll just rip that off and go win the race anyways.' Absolutely insane."

- On Toyota practice: "I am a little bit of a head scratcher on the Toyotas for tomorrow."

- On SVG at COTA: "He's hands down probably the best road course racer in NASCAR right now. Maybe not at COTA — but he did just win the O'Reilly race today."

- On Connor Zilisch: "For natural talent, he actually might be better than SVG — because of his age difference. Give Connor Zilisch another 15 years."

- On AJ Allmendinger's team: "Chevy is absolutely ghosting Colleague. They're the ugly stepchild who's been put out to pasture."

- On Ryan Preece: "I really like Ryan Preece to make the playoffs also this year, probably even win a race."

- On Todd Gilliland (sneaky pick): "That is the non-stop sneaky pick of the week. And if it hits, we're all taking Joanne out to dinner."

- On building AI tools: "I see the potential 6 months from now from that \[OpenClaw\] being a really, really cool tool to be able to use."

- On contest strategy: "The tournament builds — to win them, you just have to find the needles in the haystack and run them when nobody else is running them."

DFS Analysis & Race Recaps